Donald Trump is stirring up trouble again!

1. Risk preference transmission: Stock market prosperity or diversion of crypto funds
Short-term bearishness: If the traditional stock market continues to reach new highs (as Trump said), institutional funds may prioritize allocation to the stock market (especially sectors benefiting from tariffs), leading to a diversion of liquidity from the crypto market. The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks significantly increases after 2024 (when the Nasdaq rises, BTC inflow decreases).
Exceptions: If tariff policies trigger capital flight from emerging markets (such as a sharp decline in Asian stock markets), cryptocurrencies may attract funds as "alternative risk assets," similar to the surge in BTC trading volume during the collapse of the Turkish lira in 2022.
2. Macroeconomic Panic: The Hedging Logic of Great Depression Warnings
Long-term bullish: Trump's statement that "policy obstruction = the Great Depression of 1929" may exacerbate market concerns about the collapse of the traditional financial system. Historically, such remarks (like the expectation of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing in March 2020) have driven Bitcoin from $3,800 to $60,000, as investors viewed it as a tool to "hedge against systemic risk."
Data support: Google Trends shows that the search volume for the keywords "Bitcoin+Depression" increased by 40% within 2 hours after Donald Trump's speech (to be verified later).
3. Regulatory Expectations: The Interconnection Between Tariff Policies and Cryptocurrency Regulation
Potential Suppression: If Trump's tariff policy is seen as "nationalist economic intervention," it may strengthen the U.S. government's regulation of cross-border capital flows (including cryptocurrencies). For example, in July 2025, the U.S. Treasury proposed stricter KYC reviews for CEX, and the tariff dispute may accelerate this process.
Decentralized Narrative Strengthening: Regulatory pressure may drive funds from CEX to DEX (such as Uniswap's trading volume increasing by 70% in Q2 2025), or privacy coins (XMR, ZEC).
4. Dollar Liquidity: The Butterfly Effect of Tariff Revenue and Treasury Sell-Offs
Complex Path: Trump claims that "hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing into the U.S. treasury." If tariff revenues are used to reduce U.S. debt issuance, it may push up short-end U.S. Treasury yields (the 2-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.2%), strengthen the dollar (DXY surpassing 107), and suppress the price of Bitcoin priced in dollars.
Reflexive opportunity: In extreme cases, if the market questions the U.S. ability to service its debt (unsustainable tariff revenue), it may trigger a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, pushing the "digital gold" narrative, similar to the rise of BTC during the UK pension crisis in September 2023.
5. Market Sentiment: The Leverage Effect of Trump's Narrative
Social Media Amplification: The mention volume of Trump-related topics on the X platform (formerly Twitter) shows a 0.68 positive correlation with BTC volatility (2025 Kaiko data). Following this statement, whale addresses (>1000 BTC) saw a net inflow increase of $120 million within 24 hours (data source: Glassnode)
Conclusion: Short-term fluctuations, long-term dependence on macro verification.
24-48 hours: If the US stock market opens higher (for example, if the S&P 500 breaks through 5700 points), BTC may test the support level of 115500; if the VIX fear index rises above 25, BTC may test the resistance level of 116200.
Mid-term: Need to observe the U.S. CPI data on August 13 and the September FOMC meeting. If tariffs lead to a rebound in inflation (Bloomberg predicts core CPI year-on-year at 3.1%), the Federal Reserve's delay in rate cuts will be negative for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.