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Bitcoin, as the representative of Digital Money, has sparked widespread follow due to the economic mechanisms behind it. Although it is generally believed that the total supply of Bitcoin, 21 million coins, will not be fully mined until 2140, in reality, the challenges faced by this system may arrive many years earlier.
The security of the Bitcoin network relies on the computational power provided by miners. Currently, miners are willing to invest massive resources in mining mainly due to the substantial economic returns. It is estimated that mining a block consumes about 1.8 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, with electricity costs alone approaching $92,000. However, the total income of miners, including block rewards and transaction fees, can reach about $395,000, and this economic incentive ensures the secure operation of the network.
However, as the block reward specified in the Bitcoin protocol is halved every four years, this economic balance will face severe challenges. It is expected that by 2032, the reward for a single block will drop below 1 BTC, and by 2040, 99% of Bitcoin will have been mined. Ultimately, the block reward will reach zero, and miners will have to rely on transaction fees to maintain operations.
The problem is that currently, transaction fees account for only about 7% of miners' income, which is far from sufficient to support the overall security of the network. To maintain the current level of security, transaction fees would need to increase at least fourfold. This does not take into account factors such as hardware depreciation, operational risks, and reasonable profits.
Therefore, the Bitcoin community needs to be proactive and consider early how to ensure the long-term security and economic sustainability of the network as block rewards gradually decrease. This may involve various efforts such as adjusting protocols, optimizing mining efficiency, and exploring new revenue models. The future of Bitcoin depends not only on its technological innovations but also on the adaptability and sustainability of its economic model.