The global trade pattern is facing the largest reshaping since World War II, and Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" is further consolidated.

In March, the global market fell into policy uncertainty, eager to find new support points. U.S. stocks accelerated valuation adjustments, and the crypto market also could not avoid fluctuations. After the new tariff policy was introduced on April 2, the global trade order faced deep restructuring, and national economic policies were forced to adjust urgently. In such times, it is especially important to maintain patience. As the new order gradually establishes, market sentiment is expected to improve.

In March, Trump’s tariff policy underwent several adjustments, and on April 2, it was officially announced that a "comprehensive reciprocal tariff" policy would be implemented. A basic tariff of at least 10% is imposed on all imported goods, with additional taxes levied on about 60 countries with significant trade deficits. This marks the most drastic wave of reshaping the global trade order since World War II.

After the announcement, the market experienced intense fluctuations. U.S. stocks and the dollar plummeted significantly, with the dollar index falling below the 104 mark. Nasdaq futures plummeted over 4%, and S&P 500 futures dropped by 3.5%. The stock prices of the seven major U.S. tech giants saw particularly pronounced declines. Funds flowed into safe-haven assets, with spot gold prices soaring to a historic high of $3160 per ounce.

The high tax rate and wide range of this tariff far exceed Wall Street's expectations. Investors are worried that the tariff war will ultimately impact the foundations of U.S. economic growth. First, there is the risk of supply chain disruptions. Second, there are concerns about an inflationary spiral. According to estimates by JPMorgan, after countermeasures are implemented, the U.S. CPI could be pushed up by 2 to 2.8 percentage points.

Moody's has significantly raised the probability of an economic recession in the U.S. this year from 15% to 40%, and Goldman Sachs has also adjusted the likelihood of a recession within 12 months to 35%. In March, some U.S. economic indicators declined, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, but the consumer confidence index fell from 64.7 to 57, while the core PCE price index year-on-year still reached 2.8%, confirming the dilemma of "slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation."

The Federal Reserve expressed concerns about economic uncertainty at the March interest rate meeting. Economic growth is showing signs of slowing down, but inflation remains sticky. Lowering interest rates may stimulate price increases, while maintaining high rates could exacerbate corporate debt pressures. The Fed finds itself in a dilemma regarding policy decisions. Therefore, the interest rate remains unchanged at 5.5% in March.

After the announcement of the new tariff policy, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in June and cumulatively cut rates by 0.75 percentage points before October. The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June has risen to about 70%.

The tariff policy impacts far beyond the U.S. domestic economy and monetary policy. Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" plan aims to increase fiscal revenue while attempting to force other countries to lower tariffs or make policy changes. Other major economies are drafting countermeasures, and global trade friction may evolve from "localized conflicts" into "systemic confrontation." The future global economy and financial markets will still need to withstand pressure amid uncertainty.

U.S. stocks continued to decline in March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 8.7% and 12.3% respectively in the first quarter of 2025, marking the largest quarterly decline since 2022. Since Trump was elected in November 2024, the S&P 500 index has fallen from 6200 points to 5572 points, a decline of over 10%, evaporating $4 trillion.

In the past two years, US stocks have attracted global capital due to "no better choice than stocks," accounting for over 50% of the global stock market value. However, as the economic cycle evolves, high valuations are difficult to maintain. Institutions are revising their optimistic expectations for US stocks: Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6500 points to 6200 points; Morgan Stanley warns that 5500 points may be the starting point for a technical rebound, but it requires corporate earnings to hit bottom for support.

The expected profit growth rate of the S&P 500 in 2025 has been revised down from 11% to 7%, narrowing the profit growth advantage of the seven tech giants. Conflicting signals from U.S. policies are exacerbating market panic. Trump urges for interest rate cuts while not ruling out the possibility of a recession; White House officials downplay recession risks while acknowledging transitional pains.

The contradictory statements have left investors at a loss, undermining market confidence. The "big 7" were the first to be sold off, with Tesla dropping nearly 36% in the first quarter and Nvidia falling almost 20%. Since Trump's re-election, the market value of the "big 7" has evaporated by over $2.5 trillion.

In late March, there was a partial rebound in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 rising to 5767 points, reflecting the market's expectations for a "softening" of policies. However, it has been proven that the optimistic expectations at that time were unfounded. Some institutions have warned that the risk-reward ratio of unilateral bets on US stocks has significantly deteriorated, and greater reliance on diversification strategies is needed.

Bitcoin is also affected by market volatility and policy uncertainty, but it has performed relatively strongly. In March, it showed a "V-shaped" fluctuation, first declining and then rising, with a monthly drop narrowed to 2.09%, better than the Nasdaq index's 8.2% decline. During this market turmoil, Bitcoin demonstrated an independent market trend.

In late March, with the U.S. SEC abolishing SAB 121 and institutions like BlackRock increasing their holdings, along with the Federal Reserve signaling "three rate cuts within the year", Bitcoin made a strong rebound. Overall, the adjustments in March were more of a technical correction rather than a trend-driven decline.

The current cryptocurrency market is still affected by the new tariff policies, but the recognition and regulatory process of crypto assets by the U.S. government is becoming increasingly clear. On March 6, Trump signed an executive order to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve", incorporating approximately 200,000 BTC into the reserve. This marks the first time the U.S. government has managed Bitcoin as a permanent national asset, establishing its status as "digital gold".

The SEC is gradually easing its tough stance on cryptocurrencies, having held its first cryptocurrency roundtable and planning to host four more meetings. The SEC's shift from "enforcement-focused" to "cooperation and rule-making" is seen as a prelude to the implementation of a regulatory framework. After the repeal of SAB 121, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and others immediately launched crypto custody services, and it is expected that over $200 billion in institutional funds will enter through banking channels by Q2 2025.

Institutional investors' enthusiasm for crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, continues to rise. BlackRock CEO Fink mentioned Bitcoin multiple times in his annual letter to investors, highlighting its significance in the current financial context and suggesting its potential key role in the evolution of the global economic landscape.

If the U.S. economy does not fall into a deep recession and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to see a trend reversal in the second quarter. During times of economic instability, Bitcoin's scarcity and safe-haven properties will become even more pronounced. Once market risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset class, aligns with the market's demand for new hedging and value storage methods, and is likely to be the first to break through key resistance levels, leading to a reevaluation of its value.

In March, the market swung between "stagflation worries" and "policy easing." In the long run, if tariffs drive up inflation and erode the dollar's credibility, it will prompt capital to shift towards non-sovereign assets. BlackRock CEO Fink's question of "Will Bitcoin challenge the dollar's hegemony?" is not unfounded, reminding us that the most disruptive variable in reshaping the new global financial order has already emerged.

![Crypto Macro Monthly Report: The Global Trade Order Faces the Largest Restructuring Wave Since World War II, Bitcoin "Digital Gold" Consensus Strengthened](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-3099db53422667828047dc8036227156.webp01

![Crypto Macro Monthly Report: The global trade order faces the largest reshaping wave since World War II, Bitcoin "digital gold" consensus strengthens])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6f2c2ce3ae7c692ce4b70a97452f1b77.webp(

![Crypto Macro Monthly Report: The global trade order is undergoing the largest reshaping wave since World War II, the consensus of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is strengthening])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-9310309ab6fc7568dd72391e000bbd93.webp(

![Crypto Macroeconomic Monthly Report: The Global Trade Order Faces the Largest Restructuring Wave Since World War II, Bitcoin "Digital Gold" Consensus Strengthens])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f99a1b7b4790c41f67f38146bf3c3b91.webp(

![Crypto Macro Monthly Report: The global trade order is facing the largest reshaping wave since World War II, and the consensus of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is strengthening])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-8c8e407471e26d8805384cdf47edcee9.webp(