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#Predict BTC's Bull or Bear Trend#
A New Era on the 122K Threshold
Bitcoin surpassed $122,000. This isn't just a price increase; it's also a signal of the market's current state. So, is this surge the start of a bull market, or is it short-term excitement?
122K: Not Just a Number, But a Turning Point
Bitcoin rose to $122,317, moving one step closer to its July peak of $123,000. What's behind this surge?
Demand for spot ETFs has exploded. BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw $281 million in inflows last week.
- Trump's new order has opened the way for 401(k) retirement funds to invest in crypto. This could potentially attract $9 trillion in capital to crypto.
- New BTC addresses have broken records. More than 364,000 new addresses were opened in a single day, indicating peak interest from both institutional and individual investors.
Technical Outlook: Are the Bulls in the Field?
BTC is currently testing the "golden ratio," the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement. This level is often seen as the starting point for major rallies. If BTC can hold here, the next target could be $140,000. Options data from Deribit also supports this expectation.
But be careful: The RSI is at 73, meaning the market is slightly overbought. This increases the likelihood of a short-term correction.
Looking at the current chart, BTC's rise is supported not only by technical developments but also by political and economic developments. Expected interest rate cuts in the US are driving investors into riskier assets, increasing the appeal of digital assets like Bitcoin.
But every rise has a correction. The gap formed at $117,000 in CME futures suggests a short-term pullback. A bottom test at this level is possible, but this doesn't necessarily mean the end of the bull run.
Conclusion: The Bull Market is Coming Strong, But Caution is Essential
Bitcoin's surge past 122,000 isn't just a price move; it's a sign that crypto has gained a significant foothold in the mainstream financial world. However, this rally should be driven by data, not emotion. There may be short-term corrections, but in the long term, the future for BTC appears bright.