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Recent financial market data shows that investor bullish sentiment towards the US dollar has reached its highest point in three weeks. This phenomenon is mainly due to traders generally anticipating that Fed Chairman Powell will take a relatively cautious stance in the upcoming interest rate decision.
Deutsche Bank's monetary policy expert Sonja Marten analyzed that although there may be a slight 25 basis point rate cut in September, Powell is unlikely to adopt a more aggressive easing policy. Marten further pointed out that in the face of political pressure for rate cuts, Powell is likely to stick to his position, emphasizing that central bank decisions will be based on economic fundamentals rather than external factors.
Nick Rees, the head of macro research at Monex Europe, has put forward an interesting perspective. He believes that if the market overinterprets any remarks made by Powell regarding a potential interest rate cut in September, it could trigger a short-term sell-off of the dollar. However, Rees also predicts that this impact may only be temporary.
Comprehensive analysis from various parties suggests that the tone of this Fed policy statement may lean towards hawkish. This expectation has already contributed to the strengthening of the dollar to some extent and may continue to support the dollar exchange rate before the weekend.
It is worth noting that this interest rate decision is not only related to the domestic economy of the United States but will also have a far-reaching impact on global financial markets. Investors and policymakers will closely monitor every word from Powell to seek clues about the future direction of monetary policy.