Preface

As an asset that once soared to the ceiling in the 2017 bull market and fell to the floor in the bear market, XRP has been like an emotional amplifier in almost every cycle, especially when the overall market sentiment weakens and investor confidence falters, XRP often ranks high on the list of sell-offs.

Outlook for XRP price

Standard Chartered Bank recently released a deep report, predicting that XRP will skyrocket by over 500% in the next 3 years, reaching $12.5. The report points out that XRP’s long-term growth is mainly supported by three factors: regulatory positives, institutional adoption, and application expansion. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that by the end of 2028, XRP’s market value is expected to surpass Ethereum, becoming the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin.

Kendrick emphasized that after Trump returned to the White House, the regulatory environment shifted in favor of cryptocurrencies, especially with the SEC withdrawing its lawsuit against Ripple, ending a four-year legal dispute. He also predicted that the XRP spot ETF is expected to be approved in the third quarter of 2025, attracting $4 billion to $8 billion in the first year of listing.

XRP’s core application lies in cross-border payments and exchange solutions, which aligns with the rapid growth trend of stablecoins. Ripple is also actively expanding its asset tokenization business by issuing the USD stablecoin RLUSD. These efforts will elevate the XRP Ledger (XRPL) from a payment chain to a tokenization chain. Despite the room for improvement in developer ecosystem and value capture, Kendrick believes that if regulations continue to loosen and institutional adoption continues to expand, these unfavorable factors will gradually be offset.

On-chain data and trading behavior

According to on-chain data from Messari and Santiment, from the end of 2024 to now, the number of wallets holding more than 100,000 XRP has significantly decreased, indicating that medium-sized holders are gradually exiting the market, while small novice wallets (holding less than 1,000 coins) have seen a slight growth, indicating that retail investors still have faith in XRP, continuously buying at low levels. However, this structure is not healthy for the price. When large holders reduce their positions and retail investors buy in, the asset price is prone to enter a consolidation phase without dominant forces until external events reignite the market.

It is worth noting that the amount of XRP held on CEX is gradually decreasing, indicating an increasing willingness of users to transfer XRP out of the exchange. This may be believers hoarding coins in cold wallets, or losing confidence in trading liquidity. In either case, it raises questions about the short-term price stability of XRP.

How low can XRP fall?

From a technical analysis perspective, special attention can be paid to two key price levels, $1.9 and $1.63. $1.9 has been an important recent support level, showing strong support in multiple market fluctuations; while $1.63 is a deeper support level. If the price falls below $1.9, $1.63 may become the next key defensive point. These two price levels are not only important references on the technical chart, but also reflect the psychological expectations and trading behavior of market participants at different price levels.

(Source: TradingView)

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summary

XRP, as a highly volatile cryptocurrency asset, its price trend is influenced by a variety of factors. Despite a comprehensive report by Standard Chartered Bank painting a bright future for XRP, predicting a surge of over 500% in the next 3 years, the current market structure and trading behavior still show a certain level of uncertainty. The application expansion of XRP in cross-border payments and asset tokenization, as well as the gradual improvement in regulatory environment, continue to provide a solid foundation for its long-term development. When focusing on XRP, it is important not only to consider its technical and fundamental analysis but also to closely monitor changes in market sentiment and macroeconomic environment to make wiser investment decisions.